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How Long will the Mw ≥ 5 Aftershocks Continue Following the Mw 7.8 Philippines Earthquake of 7 June 2026?

Rekapalli R, Gupta HK.

JOURNAL OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF INDIA

https://doi.org/10.17491/jgsi.2026.174520 

The study estimates the likely duration of Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks following the Mw 7.8 Philippines earthquake of 7 June 2026. Using 10 years of regional seismicity and the 24-day aftershock sequence, analysed through the modified Omori–Utsu law, the study estimates background seismicity of about 2 events/month within 150 km and 6 events/month within 300 km. The results suggest that significant aftershock activity may persist for around 100 days, providing useful guidance for post-earthquake safety, recovery and reconstruction planning.

Observed and forecasted seismicity within 150 km & 300 km radius of the main shock, respectively.

Fig: Omori-Utsu forecast of Mw≥5 aftershock continuation for the 07 June 2026, Mw 7.8 Philippines earthquake. Blue line-cumulative number of aftershocks observed; Green line - Omori Utsu fit for the observed data; Red line - Forecast given up to 150 days after the main shock.

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